2018 Post Election Analysis: “Focus on OUR Concerns”

The 2018 midterm elections, for Republicans, is a story of missed opportunity. Holding the House was a tall order with history against the GOP as the party in power and the large number of Republican retirements But a path to preserving their House majority, even if a difficult one, did exist if the election became all about the economy. It didn’t.

This post-election analysis, based on exit poll data from the National Election Pool, done by Edison Research, and the Winston Group’s Winning the Issues post-election survey, done Election Night, assesses the 2018 campaign that began and ended with the fight for the election narrative.

There is no question that money was a significant disadvantage for Republicans in this election, but this report outlines the opportunities that existed which could have led to a much better result for them, especially in terms of what the electorate heard from both Republicans and Democrats. This report also shows that the election outcome was not the result of an ideological or party identification realignment, but instead a shift in vote preferences. This means that Republicans still have an opportunity to rebuild their majority coalition for 2020…

Read or download the full PDF report.

 

Published by David Winston

David Winston is the president of The Winston Group, a Washington, D.C., a strategic planning and survey research firm. Winston has served as a strategic advisor to Senate and House Republican leadership for the past 10 years. He was formerly the Director of Planning for Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, and advises center-right political parties throughout Europe. Additionally Winston was a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation where he did statistical policy analysis and econometric modeling. In the private sector, he has advised Fortune 100 companies on strategic planning and brand reputation. Winston has lectured at The Wharton of School of Business, MIT, Harvard, and the National War College. His writings have appeared in a variety of publications, and he authored the chapter on Strategy for the college textbook Campaigns and Elections American Style. He is credited for originating the concept of “security mom” and played a key role in developing the narrative “where are the jobs” for the 2010 election cycle. Winston is an election analyst for CBS News, and frequently appears on cable and network news.