Roll Call: “Trump and Biden’s 2020 challenge: 3 percent or bust”

In today’s Roll Call the Winston Group’s David Winston writes about polling and election results with some historical perspective.

When looking at presidential polls, there is a number that matters — 3. I call it the 3 percent factor. When the race is at or under 3 percent, the head-to-head ballot test in national polls is not necessarily a clear predictor of who will ultimately win the presidency, and state polls are probably a better indicator of the race. But history tells us that when one candidate’s lead goes above 3 percent nationally, the size of the lead is likely to produce both at least a plurality in the popular vote and a win in the Electoral College.

Read the full piece here.

Published by Caitlin Peartree

Caitlin joined the Winston Group in November 2015. Originally from upstate New York, Caitlin graduated from the University of Notre Dame in May 2015. She received a Bachelor of Arts in the Program of Liberal Studies, a great books program, and in French. Her coursework focused on literature, philosophy, theology, history, fine arts, and science, and she is fluent in French. Prior to joining the Winston Group, Caitlin gained experience as an intern with the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP). Her interests include health and education policy.