In today’s Roll Call, the Winston Group’s David Winston dives in to the most recent exit polls to outline the five factors that were in play in Tuesday’s elections that Republicans need to understand going into the 2026 midterms.
Republicans’ loss of independents was one of the deciding factors in both gubernatorial elections.
In Virginia, independents made up 33 percent of the electorate. Spanberger won them by 19 points, (59-40), the same margin as Biden’s in 2020 and a major reversal of Glenn Youngkin’s 9-point margin (54-45) in 2021.
In New Jersey, Sherrill carried independents by 13 points (56-43).
In 2018, Republicans lost independents by 12 points (42-54). They must do better with independents after losing them in the last four elections at the House level.
In 2024, Donald Trump carried the seven battleground states, five of which had Senate races. Of those, only one Republican candidate won independents — Dave McCormick of Pennsylvania — and he was also the only one of the five to win his Senate race.
Read the full piece here.
