The Winston Group’s David Winston writes in today’s Roll Call about the special election in Tennessee and what it may indicate looking ahead to the 2026 midterms.
We saw not only a unique special election turnout, but it might indicate what we could see in next year’s midterms. Which party ultimately benefits remains to be seen. Like the Tennessee special, the 2025 New Jersey and Virginia turnouts exceeded 2022 as well.
The three races share another similarity — the impact of voters’ top issue: the economy and inflation, or affordability or kitchen table issues. It’s clear that Democrats have gained some traction by blaming Trump for continuing inflation, which stubbornly remains at 3 percent.
Trump’s usual economic metrics don’t necessarily jive with people’s every day metrics. Voters are unhappy with the costs of groceries, health care, housing and other day-to-day necessities where inflation has hit hardest. The metrics Trump most often cites revolve around the markets, tariff revenues, foreign investment and interest rates. All are important measures for long-term growth. But they don’t put money in people’s pockets to pay the bills.
Read the full piece here.
