In the first of our Discussion Points Podcast Battleground episodes, we are spotlighting the Senate race between Susan Collins and Troy Jackson. (Link here to Episode 7: Senate Battleground Maine: Can Susan Collins Win Re-Election Again?)
The current environment is challenging in a state like Maine, but this is something Collins has faced before. Her stunning victory in 2020 showed her appeal to crossover voters in a difficult environment. Despite Biden winning Maine by 9, Collins won by almost 9 points (8.6%). There were two key groups that were central to her success:
• 18% of Biden voters
• 23% of voters who disapproved of Trump. Despite Maine voters disapproving of Trump’s job as president, 41-58 approve-disapprove, Collins managed to win 23% of those who disapproved of Trump, offsetting the negative effect at the presidential level.
How did this vote coalition come together?
1.) Independents: In a state in which independents (41% of the 2020 Maine electorate) outnumbered Republicans (31%) and Democrats (28%), Collins won independents by 3, compared to -24 for the presidential result.
2.) Moderates: In terms of ideological composition of the state, moderates were the largest group in 2020: 43% moderate, 30% conservative, 28% liberal. Collins won moderates by 7 despite Trump losing moderates by 24.
3.) Women: Exit polls showed that 59% of the 2020 Maine electorate were women, higher than the national percentage of 52%. Collins won women by 3, in contrast to President Trump who lost female voters by 23 in Maine. Given the high proportion of female voters, the allegations against the previous Democratic candidate Graham Platner were particularly problematic for his electoral prospects.
There will more battleground podcast episodes coming this fall. Be sure to subscribe to our Discussion Points Podcast to be notified when we post new content.
