Independents were a key factor in Republican victories in 2010 and the Red Wave that didn’t materialize in 2022. They are a center-right group, David Winston tells Byron York for the Washington Examiner, but 44% of them have an unfavorable view of both parties, and their top issues are economic-related by a very wide margin.
Their concerns about the economy and negative view of both parties make for a very volatile electorate this fall.
“The reason we didn’t have a red wave in 2022 is that Republicans ran a base election,” Winston explained. “That netted Republicans the best Party ID advantage in the history of exit polling, but unfortunately Republicans lost independents by 2 points — the key voter group in competitive races.”
Winston pointed out that in 2010, the Republican blowout that netted the party 63 seats, the GOP won independent voters by 19 points. “In 2010, Republicans won 242 House seats, and in 2022 Republicans won 222 seats — a difference of 20, about the same difference in the margin among independents,” Winston said.
Now, Winston concluded, the question is: where do independents go?
Read the full piece here.
