By David Winston and Myra Miller
As we have raised before, the electorate has significant concerns about raising taxes in this fragile economic environment, particularly any tax increase that could impact small business. Voters believe that we need to do everything we can to help businesses get back on their feet so they can get Americans back to work to keep the economy moving in the right direction (70-18 believe-do not believe).
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A recent New York Magazine interview with Democratic pollster David Shor provided insights on how Democrats see challenges and opportunities for the 2022 midterm elections. One of the groups discussed in the interview is Hispanics, a group with which Republicans improved in the last election, taking Democrats by surprise. Based on the interview, Democrats seem to interpret their electoral challenges in the context of demographics, race and class, and less about voter belief systems and positions on issues. But Shor does recognize that white liberal elites are pushing the party to the left and alienating certain voter groups, including Hispanics: “…We’ve ended up in a situation where white liberals are more left wing than Black and Hispanic Democrats on pretty much every issue: taxes, health care, policing, and even on racial issues or various measures of ‘racial resentment.’ So as white liberals increasingly define the party’s image and messaging, that’s going to turn off nonwhite conservative Democrats and push them against us.”
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Ultimately, 2020 was a two-tier election. Biden defeated Trump for the presidency, but results down ballot showed support for center-right ideas and governance. Overall, a split decision.
Read our full analysis here.
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The 2018 midterm elections, for Republicans, is a story of missed opportunity. Holding the House was a tall order with history against the GOP as the party in power and the large number of Republican retirements But a path to preserving their House majority, even if a difficult one, did exist if the election became all about the economy. It didn’t.
This post-election analysis, based on exit poll data from the National Election Pool, done by Edison Research, and the Winston Group’s Winning the Issues post-election survey, done Election Night, assesses the 2018 campaign that began and ended with the fight for the election narrative.
There is no question that money was a significant disadvantage for Republicans in this election, but this report outlines the opportunities that existed which could have led to a much better result for them, especially in terms of what the electorate heard from both Republicans and Democrats. This report also shows that the election outcome was not the result of an ideological or party identification realignment, but instead a shift in vote preferences. This means that Republicans still have an opportunity to rebuild their majority coalition for 2020…
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What did voters tell Washington in 2016? They wanted to “rock the boat.” Read through our in-depth 2016 Post Election Analysis to find out how voters defined their choice, and what role deeper concerns over the direction of the country, the economy, and the political system played in that decision.
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