This week marks the 16th anniversary of the Affordable Care Act. Almost two decades after the ACA’s passage, Democrats are still promoting one of their biggest legislative accomplishments and their interpretation of the bill’s benefits.
Republicans blame the ACA as the reason why today’s health care system is in dire straits, but they could heed the example of selling a legislative accomplishment over the long haul. After the 2017 passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), most Republicans and advocates moved on to other priorities and did not actively promote the benefits of the bill. This has allowed the TCJA to be defined by Democrats as tax breaks for the rich and the cause of the national debt.
The absence of a long term sales job was a missed opportunity in the 2018 midterm elections. From our 2018 post-election analysis: “More people believed the bill would not lower taxes for “people like them” 36-42 (will-will not)…Voters believed the tax cut bill reduced rates for corporations and the wealthy (67-17 believe-do not believe) but not that it would reduce rates for everyone (32-50 believe-not believe)….The electorate was not aware of the basic elements of the bill, and naturally as a result, were unaware of the potential benefits at risk. When Republicans said Democrats were going to take away their tax cut, only one-third of the electorate thought they had something to lose. If a majority of voters had understood that the tax cut bill was going to lower taxes for them, this would have decisively helped Republicans. Those people who said it would lower their taxes voted Republican 73-26.”
Following last summer’s Working Families Tax Cuts/One Big Beautiful Bill, Republicans face the same test again — will they sustain the effort to promote their signature accomplishment, or willthey move on to other priorities and allow the bill to be defined by critics?
The key question shaping views about the Republican tax bill is whether it does or does not prevent a tax increase on you and your family. From our latest survey for Winning the Issues (March 15-17), there is a clear contrast in support for the bill based on whether people think it prevents a tax increase on them. Among those who believe it does prevent a tax increase, they favor the bill 71-26. Among those who do not, they oppose the bill 28-66.
Now that they have another legislative achievement to sell to voters, Republicans are getting a second chance to define their tax policy on their own terms, not just in the short term but for years to come. Will they get it right this time?
For more on the tax bill and implications for the midterms, see David’s Roll Call column from last fall: Why Republicans still need to close the deal on the Big Beautiful Bill.
