In his latest column for Roll Call, the Winston Group’s David Winston analyzes the decisive role independent voters played in Republicans’ midterm losses.
According to the exit polls, which are not final yet, Democrats won independents by an astonishing 20 points. If this holds, it will be the largest margin in the history of exit polling, beating the Republican margin in 2010 of 19 points. For Republicans, this is the fifth consecutive election losing independents.
It was the size of the GOP defeat with independents that put the number of states and congressional districts into play, districts that President Donald Trump won in 2024, many by double digits.
Independents made up 33 percent of the electorate; Democrats were at 35 percent and Republicans at 32 percent. This is the second consecutive election where independents were a larger part of the electorate than one of the major parties. It also shows that while independents may not have been enthused about voting, they showed up.
Read the full piece here.
