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2026 Election Special Edition: What We Know So Far
Here are initial takeaways from preliminary exit polls (these are not final). The current House generic margin is +10D which exceeds the margins in 2006 (+8D) and 2018 (+8.6D). 1.) Independents were a central force in the election outcome. • Preliminary exit polls show Republicans losing independents by -17. This compares to -18 in 2006 and -12 in 2018. We are seeing the same trend in several Senate races. • As shown in the chart below,
Latest Posts
Fake Polling Strikes Again: Red Flags To Watch
Roll Call: Republicans, it’s time to close the deal – Go positive
The Best Campaign Advantage Republicans Have (It Isn’t Money)
What’s The Latest On Education Issue Handling?
Policy and Politics
2026 Election Special Edition: What We Know So Far
Here are initial takeaways from preliminary exit polls (these are not final). The current House generic margin is +10D which exceeds the margins in 2006 (+8D) and 2018 (+8.6D). 1.) Independents were a central force in the election outcome. • Preliminary exit polls show Republicans losing independents by -17. This compares
Fake Polling Strikes Again: Red Flags To Watch
More fake polling organizations were uncovered this week. Wedgewood Polling announced they deliberately fabricated certain polls as “an experimental project to demonstrate the vulnerabilities, lack of oversight and overall low barrier to entry in the modern political polling industry.” Several examples of their polling in states like Michigan and Wisconsin showed progressive
The Best Campaign Advantage Republicans Have (It Isn’t Money)
Republicans are facing several headwinds for the election, including the president’s job approval and their slippage on economic issue handling. In terms of the cards they have left to play, Republicans may be trusting in their cash advantages, but we think the best card they have to play is their
The Wall Street Journal: The Republican Party Is Losing Its Edge With Voters on the Economy
The Winston Group’s David Winston was recently featured in an article from The Wall Street Journal about cost-of-living worries and how the preference for Republicans to handle economic issues has started to slip. If Democrats win by double digits among independents and can sustain leads on the economy, a Blue
GOP’s Big Opportunity With 127 Million Filers: The Standard Deduction
In efforts to sell their Big Beautiful Bill, Republicans have focused more of their messaging on no tax on tips and overtime, but they may be missing their biggest opportunity to reach the most people with the standard deduction. The IRS says that about 90% of tax filers — 127
Are Tax Cuts Depriving The Government Of Needed Revenue?
Republicans have just passed the one year mark of their signature legislative accomplishment, The Big Beautiful Bill. One of the main Democratic criticisms of the BBB and the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is that tax cuts “deprive the federal government of needed revenue.” Given the nation’s bleak fiscal
What’s The Latest On Education Issue Handling?
Voters’ choice of which party they have more confidence in to handle education has been a frequent topic of this newsletter. While there have been points at which education has been a more competitive issue — the most recent of which was shortly after former Governor Glenn Youngkin’s election in
The Latest Voter Outlook On Higher Education
Colleges and universities have found themselves facing new challenges over the last year, a sentence we’ve written — in one form or another — about higher education several times over the last several years. The forecasted demographic cliff is starting or soon to hit. To boost enrollment, some schools are
New PISA Results: Reading A Continued Struggle For US Students
The Tuesday after the unofficial end of summer brought news that was on balance bad, but not wholly unexpected from the latest Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) results. The biggest headline was in reading. Between 2022 and 2025, US 15-year-olds’ reading scores dropped a precipitous 14 points. This mirrors
Roll Call: Republicans, it’s time to close the deal – Go positive
The Winston Group’s David Winston argues that Republicans need to go positive and focus on their values and policy priorities in the weeks remaining before the midterm elections. Voters as a whole say they are ideologically closer to Republicans than Democrats, he argues. Therefore, Because Republicans are more in tune
Roll Call: Republicans Need To Make A Solutions-Based Argument
In his latest column for Roll Call, The Winston Group’s David Winston argues that Republicans need to make a “solutions argument” – that their ideas have made progress and will eventually fix the economy – to the country. A month out from the election, voters don’t see themselves having a
Roll Call: Voters To Republicans: Fix The Biden Economy
In his latest column for Roll Call, The Winston Group’s David Winston writes that Republican candidates need to focus their own message on the economy. This means pointing out that progress has been made but acknowledging a lot more needs to be done. And, most importantly, defining what Republicans plan