The newest BLS numbers for inflation and weekly wages (from December) showed that November’s positive numbers were sustained. This change has largely been as a result of decreased gas prices, and has only emerged in the last two BLS monthly reports. As seen in our most recent survey for Winning the Issues (January 8-12), this moved the electorate to a less negative view of inflation, but that view is still very challenging. Here are some of the takeaways from the survey:
Views of inflation: The percentage saying inflation is getting worse has decreased from 57% in November to 47% now. The percentage saying inflation is getting better went from 20% to 27%. Another 22% say it is not changing. This does not represent optimism in the electorate’s outlook — the largest group still says inflation is getting worse — but a tempering of negative views.
Direction of economy: Since November, the direction of economy improved slightly from 31-58 to 36-51. Some good news is that most of this uptick came from independents, going from 21-68 in November to 29-53.
Issue handling: Although there are still challenges in the economy, there have been improvements in issue handling from what we had observed in the summer and fall. The Republican leads are not close to what they had been coming out of the 2024 election (+12 on inflation, +11 on economy) but Republicans are now at +3 on inflation and +3 on the economy.
Wages versus inflation: Although there are real improvements in weekly wages outpacing inflation since Trump’s inaugural month, voters do not yet see it that way. Two-thirds (65%) believe that cost of living is increasing faster than your wages (22% increasing at about the same rate, 7% wages are increasing faster than cost of living).
There are still significant challenges on the economy and are not where they need to be for the November midterm election. But from our latest numbers, the trends may be headed in the right direction.
