Analysis - All Posts
Blue Wave Election Landslide: What Happened? Discussion Points Episode 19
In this new post-election episode, Myra and David discuss initial findings from the midterm elections. They compare the 2026 Blue Wave to past elections with independents playing a critical role in what happened nationally and in Senate races. They review what the exit polls show about the scale of the
Roll Call: Independents decide the election, again!
In his latest column for Roll Call, the Winston Group’s David Winston analyzes the decisive role independent voters played in Republicans’ midterm losses. According to the exit polls, which are not final yet, Democrats won independents by an astonishing 20 points. If this holds, it will be the largest margin
Election Fallout: Was It The War Or A Longer Term Problem?
We start with a few updates since our special edition on Wednesday morning: • From updated exit polls (not final), the current House generic margin is +12D which exceeds the margins in 2006 (+8D) and 2018 (+8.6D). • The current margin among independents is +20D (not final). • Party ID
2026 Election Special Edition: What We Know So Far
Here are initial takeaways from preliminary exit polls (these are not final). The current House generic margin is +10D which exceeds the margins in 2006 (+8D) and 2018 (+8.6D). 1.) Independents were a central force in the election outcome. • Preliminary exit polls show Republicans losing independents by -17. This compares
October Surprise? 3 Big Surprises Of The 2026 Election – Discussion Points Episode 18
Will this election cycle see an October surprise? In the latest episode of Discussion Points, The Winston Group’s Myra Miller and David Winston identify three of the biggest surprises of the 2026 Election: the expanded playing field of competitive races, old campaign tactics not working, and the rise of independent
Fake Polling Strikes Again: Red Flags To Watch
More fake polling organizations were uncovered this week. Wedgewood Polling announced they deliberately fabricated certain polls as “an experimental project to demonstrate the vulnerabilities, lack of oversight and overall low barrier to entry in the modern political polling industry.” Several examples of their polling in states like Michigan and Wisconsin showed progressive