We start with a few updates since our special edition on Wednesday morning: • From updated exit polls (not final), the current House generic margin is +12D which exceeds the margins in 2006 (+8D) and 2018 (+8.6D). • The current margin among independents is +20D (not final). • Party ID
Here are initial takeaways from preliminary exit polls (these are not final). The current House generic margin is +10D which exceeds the margins in 2006 (+8D) and 2018 (+8.6D). 1.) Independents were a central force in the election outcome. • Preliminary exit polls show Republicans losing independents by -17. This compares
More fake polling organizations were uncovered this week. Wedgewood Polling announced they deliberately fabricated certain polls as “an experimental project to demonstrate the vulnerabilities, lack of oversight and overall low barrier to entry in the modern political polling industry.” Several examples of their polling in states like Michigan and Wisconsin showed progressive
Republicans are facing several headwinds for the election, including the president’s job approval and their slippage on economic issue handling. In terms of the cards they have left to play, Republicans may be trusting in their cash advantages, but we think the best card they have to play is their
Democrats are betting on a Blue Wave and are likely to interpret a win as a mandate. But last week, Charlie Cook made an insightful observation about a more appropriate description of what a Democratic win might be: While many have long predicted that Democrats will enjoy a “blue wave” election, I
Six weeks out from the election, our new survey for Winning the Issues (September 12-16) shows an alarming environment for Republicans. The economy is overwhelmingly seen as headed in the wrong direction (28-64 right direction-wrong track). Inflation is seen as getting worse (67%) rather than better (13%) or not changing