We start with a few updates since our special edition on Wednesday morning:
• From updated exit polls (not final), the current House generic margin is +12D which exceeds the margins in 2006 (+8D) and 2018 (+8.6D).
• The current margin among independents is +20D (not final).
• Party ID is now +3D, with independents (33%) outnumbering Republicans (32%) by 1 point. Democrats are coming in at 35%. If this margin holds, this will be the same dynamic that happened to Democrats in 2024 when they were outnumbered by independents.
For the electorate, inflation continued to be a hardship as shown by the exit polls (79% said inflation was a severe or moderate hardship) and there is no question that economic concerns were exacerbated by high gas prices. Tariffs clearly played a role (66% of voters said they hurt the economy). The President’s job approval in the election (currently 37-63 — not final) was worse than the three previous presidents in their first midterms. But as we have written many times, red flags for Republicans emerged long before the war began in February. Some of these warning signs date back to 2022. Remember the missing Red Wave?
As the famous quote from Frederick the Great says, “it is pardonable to be defeated but never to be surprised.” On Tuesday night, many Republicans were not merely surprised, they were blindsided by the scale of the losses. Given the ongoing problems among independents, it should not be a surprise that big losses among this group cost Republicans in several races.
We have talked about independents in numerous editions of Discussion Points. As we saw in 2022, the anticipated Red Wave was short circuited by underperformance among independents (+2D), despite a historic party ID advantage (+3R). Making this a base turnout election of 2024 Trump voters simply would not be enough. Last year’s gubernatorial elections in VA and NJ were obvious signs that the 2020 Biden coalition could be re-emerging. In this election, independents came back to haunt Republicans yet again. The chart shows the current independent margins in Senate races (not final):
Of the 13 states on this list, every one had Democrats over 50% among independents with eight over 60%. Six states show the independent margin over 30 points. In states like Ohio and Texas, there were significant GOP party ID advantages (+8R in OH, not final; +5R in TX, not final) but the Democratic performance among independents was able to overcome that advantage.
To prepare for 2028, Republicans must confront the challenges among independents. After the 2022 election, we recommended a content audit of GOP campaign ads to evaluate campaign messaging. Given the hundreds of millions of dollars that went toward ads, a content audit is a critical step.
We will be releasing a comprehensive post-election analysis and recommendations in the next few days. There will be upcoming episodes on our Discussion Points YouTube channel.
