Neither party came out of last fall’s shutdown as a winner, but Democrats took more hits than Republicans. From our tracking for Winning the Issues, our November post-shutdown survey showed that Republicans ended the shutdown at 37-58 favorable-unfavorable, and in January, are currently at 41-53 fav-unfav. Democrats ended the shutdown at 36-58 fav-unfav, and currently stand at 38-56 fav-unfav. The improvement for Republicans was also seen among independent voters. Independents went from 25-68 favorable-unfavorable to Republicans after the shutdown to 31-57. Their view of Democrats went from 23-68 to 28-60.
Our November survey found that only 17% of the electorate believed the last shutdown was worth it with a large majority of (67%) saying it was not worth it. In terms of the shutdown’s impact on the economy, 71% believed that it had a serious impact (71-18 believe-do not believe).
With the upcoming funding deadline, Congress is racing to avoid another shutdown. In our latest survey for Winning the Issues (January 8-12), we explored voter reaction to another shutdown. Voters overwhelmingly say a shutdown is not an appropriate legislative strategy for either party (17-72 yes-no). This is true among Republicans (13-80) and independents (17-72). There is a slightly larger percentage of Democrats saying that a shutdown is an appropriate strategy (22% among Democrats, 27% among liberal Democrats) but the majorities of Democrats do not view a shutdown as an appropriate strategy.
Since we entered the new year, voters have shown a slight decrease in negativity on the economy particularly around gas prices coming down. As we wrote about in our January 16 Discussion Points, we have seen some improvement in Republican economic issue handling. Another government shutdown would likely be seen as a setback to economic progress, and shift the policy spotlight away from the electorate’s top issue. Republicans are counting on good economic news to propel their chances going into November, and cannot afford another message derailment.
For more thoughts on a second shutdown, see David’s latest Roll Call column Another Democratic shutdown: is it Groundhog Day again?
