The longest federal government shutdown in history is over, with Democrats getting very little in the end. From our new numbers for Winning the Issues (November 15-17), the shutdown was overwhelmingly seen as not worth it (67%) rather than worth it (17%). Only 17% of liberal Democrats and 14% of Democrats said the shutdown was worth it. This outlook is reinforced by a November 13-14 CBS poll that showed the electorate believes Republicans got more of what they wanted (55%) compared to only 6% saying Democrats.
Congressional Democrats’ brand image dropped from 41-51 in August down to 36-58 presently. By comparison, the Congressional Republican brand went from 39-56 favorable- unfavorable pre-shutdown to 37-58. Among independents — a voter group that particularly dislikes partisan gridlock — the GOP brand went from 31-62 to 25-68, while the Democrats went from 30-60 to 23-68.
While the shutdown was a bust for Democrats, the elections in Virginia and New Jersey reinforced that kitchen table issues are still voters’ top priority. (Links to our recent posts: The message to Republicans out of last week’s elections and Key numbers to know out of Tuesday’s elections)
Our research continues to show a belief that inflation is getting worse (57%) rather than better (20%) or not changing (19%). As we have written before, Republican issue handling leads on economy and inflation have disappeared. Since the 2024 election, Republicans have lost their double digit leads on inflation issue handling (from +12R to -3) and economy issue handling (from +11R to -3).
The White House is right to pivot the issue focus onto cost of living, as economic concerns will set the stage for next year’s elections. Schumer is doing his best to position the midterms like he did in 2006, when Democrats won the House and Senate in a wave election. That election centered upon cost of living and the “middle class squeeze” as the theme of Democratic campaigns.
After Washington was derailed by the 43 day shutdown, Republicans need to get back on track with an economic agenda. For more on the White House’s focus on affordability, see David’s latest Roll Call column There’s no sugarcoating inflation.
