Last Tuesday’s elections did not go well for Republicans, and while there are several electoral takeaways, one of the most obvious is that cost of living is still a problem for voters. For several weeks, we have highlighted this concern in Discussion Points. Our 2024 post election survey showed Republicans having a lead of +12 on inflation and +11 on the economy; in our latest survey (October 15-16), those leads were down to -3 (inflation) and -1 (economy). Last week’s elections showed a clear focus on the economy and that economic issues are a vulnerability for Republicans. Here are the exit poll results of the choice of five issues:
Virginia Governor: In the gubernatorial election, the economy dominated the choice of five issues at 48%, with health care a distant second at 21%. Among voters whose top issue was the economy, Spanberger won 63-36.
New Jersey Governor: In New Jersey, economic issues were at the forefront with taxes at 35% and the economy a close second at 32%. Among those prioritizing taxes, Ciattarelli won them 62-37. Those who focused on the economy voted for Sherrill 66-33.
NYC Mayor: In the mayoral race, cost of living dominated at 55%, with crime coming in second at 22%, and other issues in single digits (immigration, 9%; health care, 7%, transportation, 1%).
These results indicate that Republicans need to regain their focus on the economy and inflation going into 2026.
