Last week, we talked about the future of the health care debate and moving beyond the status quo. Having been emboldened by the pivot to health care during the government shutdown, some Democrats are starting to promote Medicare For All (MFA) more publicly than they have in a long time. From our latest research for Winning the Issues (January 8-12), we explored the health care policy debate including views about MFA.
Two-way choice of health care systems: In the absence of a defined alternative to the current system, voters would prefer MFA over the current system 47-31. This is a larger margin in favor of MFA compared to previous results. In April 2020, the result was much closer with 42% preferring the current system and 39% preferring MFA, with a similar result (42-42) in October 2019. Among independents, 49% prefer a MFA system, with 27% preferring the current system and 24% undecided. Republicans would prefer the current system, but this is not a majority view (48-29, 24% undecided).
Awareness that MFA is government-run: The belief that a Medicare For All health care system would be government-run health care is shared across party (61-18 believe-do not believe overall), so the openness to MFA is not because voters do not understand this means government-run. Two-thirds of Republicans (67-16), 63% of independents (63-16) and 54% of Democrats believe this statement (54-23). We did not see much difference in the views of MFA relative to the belief that it is government-run health care. Among voters who believe MFA is government-run, they favored it 57-30. Among those who do not believe it is government-run, a similar margin favored it (59-27). This means that opponents of MFA need to find stronger arguments to define it instead of simply saying it is government-run.
Three-way choice with modernized system: When voters have a third option, a modernized health care system, 45% prefer the modernized system, with 32% preferring MFA and 12% preferring the current system. In contrast to the two-way choice, preference for MFA dropped 15%; for the current system, there was a drop-off of 19%. Also in the three-way choice, independents preferred a modernized health care system (49%) by 20 points over MFA (29%). Democrats still chose MFA (49%) over a modernized system (31%), but a third still preferred the modernized system.
These results mean voters are looking for an alternative to the current system and would prefer something else than Medicare For All. After more than a decade since the passage of the ACA, Republicans need to define their own vision for health care and the kind of system they are working toward. Without another option to the current system, voters might be willing to consider a system that is government-run.
