The votes in Virginia are in, and Republican Glenn Youngkin has defeated Democrat Terry McAuliffe to be the next governor of Virginia. This week, we take a look at the election exit polls and the role education played in the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election.
First, Youngkin succeeded because he was able to connect with voters beyond the Republican base. Independents for example preferred him by 9 points. In contrast, Biden won by 19 among this group of Virginia voters in 2020, a 28-point swing. Voters with children under 18 preferred Biden by 10 points in 2020, but in 2021, Youngkin won them by 4, a 14-point swing. Finally, suburban voters preferred Youngkin by 7 points, having preferred Biden by 8 points in 2020, a 15-point swing.
Turning to education, half of voters overall (52%) said parents should have “a lot” of say in what their child’s school teaches, compared to 32% saying “some”, 10% saying “not much” and only 3% saying “not at all.” And while Republicans overwhelmingly said parents should have “a lot” of say, this was not solely a Republican view, with 53% of independents also agreeing parents should have a lot of say. Overall, those who said parents should have a lot of say broke overwhelmingly for Youngkin (+55).
Finally, education (24%) came in as the second issue behind the economy and jobs (33%) when voters were asked which issue was the most important facing Virginia. Even more noteworthy is the party makeup of those voters who put education as their top issue: only 30% were Republicans; 33% were Democrats, and 37% were independents. It was less Republican than the overall Virginia electorate (34% Republican; 30% independent; 36% Democrat). Yet, Youngkin won this diverse group of education voters by 6 points.
Youngkin won because he was able to create a coalition that included key groups like independents, suburban voters, and importantly, parents. Equally important was the role that education played as an issue shaping the election.
Whether the education that was at the top of 24% of Virginia voters’ minds referred to concerns about critical race theory, McAuliffe’s apparent attitude toward the role of parents in education, or to long-simmering frustrations with school closures, virtual learning, and other COVID protocols is difficult to disentangle. More likely, “education” represents a combination of all these issues. But the fact that it was not an overwhelmingly Republican group saying education was the most important issue underscores the broad based resonance it had among Virginians and may very well have with a national electorate looking ahead to 2022.
