In their essay for the latest edition of The Ripon Forum, The Winston Group’s David Winston and Myra Miller assess the political environment for Republicans as the midterms approach. While it is typically difficult for the incumbent president’s party in a midterm cycle, they write that 2026 is not a foregone conclusion. In the essay they discuss whether there will be a Blue Wave; what the midterms will be about; lessons Republicans can learn from 2018; and, the opportunity Republicans have looking ahead to November
As we typically see in a midterm cycle for the incumbent president’s party, midterm elections can be difficult. Republicans are in a challenging position, but 2026 is not a foregone conclusion.
Many say it’s all about turnout, but recent elections have shown independent voters increasing in size and influence. Exit polls show that independents increased 7 points from 2020 to 2024, eclipsing Democrats as a percentage of the electorate. Independents surpassed Democrats in 5 out of 7 competitive presidential states including Michigan, North Carolina and Arizona — states with competitive races this cycle.
Read the full piece here.
