At last week’s GOP convention, President Trump implored his supporters to pretend he’s on the ballot. Will that help Republicans? In his latest column for Roll Call, the Winston Group’s David Winston digs into previous elections to answer that question, and analyzes how presidential job approval comes into play in midterm election years.
In 2022, House Republicans won 222 seats. In 2024, with Trump on the ballot, they won 220. This was despite voter unhappiness with President Joe Biden’s economic policies. Exit polls found that 75 percent of the electorate said inflation caused a moderate or severe hardship to them or their families. Yet Republicans lost two seats.
A look back at previous elections provides some insight into the impact of presidential job approval on midterm elections. Over the past three decades, the House majority has flipped five times — in 1994, 2006, 2010, 2018 and 2022. In each of those elections, the incumbent president’s party lost the House; and in every case, the sitting president’s job approval was underwater.
Across those five, exit polls showed the presidential job approval ranged from 43 percent to 45 percent. The disapproval ranged from 52 percent to 57 percent. The best of those was Trump in 2018 (45-54) and the worst was George W. Bush in 2006 (43-57). What should be most concerning for the Trump team today is how much lower his approval is than previous presidents’ ratings.
Read the full piece here.
