As lawmakers are heading home for July 4, the Big Beautiful Bill will be a hot topic back home in their districts. From our latest research for Winning the Issues (June 12-14), we took a look at the bill and what Members can anticipate from voter reaction.
At this point, the legislation is undefined with significant numbers of undecided. In reaction to the House bill that includes extending tax provisions from the 2017 law, voters were largely undecided (33-29 favor-oppose, 38% don’t know) with differences by party. Republicans were supportive (55-12) but with about a third undecided (34%). Independents were mostly undecided (25-31, 44% don’t know). As we saw in other parts of the research, the individual provisions are clear positive attributes once people understand what those are. This is similar to what we saw during the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
In our research, we evaluated several statements that have been made. The chart below shows criticisms in red and positive statements in blue.
Of a series of statements about the bill, the most believable one was that if nothing is done and Congress does not act, taxes will go up next year (62-18 believe-do not believe). This was believed by Republicans (72-13) and independents (60-16). Notice that this statement is more effective than the statement if Congress does not act to pass the bill, this will result in the largest tax increase in history which only 44% believed (44-29 believe-do not believe). Even among Republicans, only 55% believed this statement compared to 72% believing that taxes will go up next year. Among independents, there was a 21-point gap in the believability of this statement (39% believe) compared to the first statement that taxes will go up (60%).
Voters tend to be skeptical of statements from both sides asserting something is “the largest in history” or similar statements that have an element of hyperbole. However, voters do believe in the inertia of taxes going up and the role of Congressional inaction.
Another statement with more than 50% believing was that the bill will massively increase the current deficit to $2.5 trillion and burden American citizens with crushingly unsustainable debt (51-24). Republicans are split on this statement (37-37) with independents tending to believe it (50-21). The criticism that the bill does not go far enough to cut federal spending was believed somewhat by Republicans (51-23) even though they support the bill. Outside the Republican base, voters do not know enough about the legislation yet to be convinced about specific savings for taxpayers.
