Just like we saw with the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, the media is out to negatively define the Republican tax bill before it passes. As we highlighted last week, voters are largely undecided about the bill (33-29 favor-oppose, 38% don’t know). Republicans are supportive (55-12) but with large numbers of undecided (34%). Voter groups with highest amount of undecided are women (47%) and independents (44%). In our latest research for Winning the Issues (June 12-14), we asked voters for the reasons behind their support or opposition to the bill, or why they were undecided.
Reasons for supporting the bill: Reasons for support focused on the positive economic impact of the bill: You support extending the tax provisions and keeping rates lower (38%); it will have a positive impact on the economy (27%); it will help fight inflation (14%).
Reasons for opposing: Among the opposed, their reasons centered on familiar criticisms: It gives tax breaks to the wealthy (31%); you oppose changes to programs like Medicaid (17%), you oppose policies of President Trump and Republicans in Congress (16%), it could increase the deficit (13%), doesn’t cut spending enough (8%). Only 2% said they opposed the bill because of Elon Musk’s criticisms, with 1% opposing because it doesn’t increase the SALT deduction high enough.
Reasons for being undecided: The predominant reason for being undecided was lack of awareness of the bill’s provisions (42%) rather than any partisan criticism. With 38% of the electorate undecided about the bill, there is an opportunity to positively shape voter perceptions with the bill’s provisions.
Earlier this year, we did another series of research about the expiring tax provisions. We found that Republicans could be moved with messaging, while independents had a higher threshold to be convinced. We showed voters in focus groups a visual example of tax provisions as they currently stand and changes if they expire (see more in our Tax Tools). When voters saw the changes to tax rates and other provisions like the standard deduction, they made the personal connection to their financial situations. Media coverage had given them the impression that only the rich would be affected. After seeing the potential changes, there was a greater realization of the personal impact. Here are two examples of voter reaction:
These figures really shift my opinion…the impact on people who are middle or lower income in those brackets, the impact will be significant.
I wasn’t aware of all the details of the proposed changes, but to me it’s very clear that keeping the current setup is beneficial to most people than not. …I want to know if I’m in favor of keeping this, why the heck politicians aren’t using this?
Once the legislation’s details are finalized, there should be visual examples to promote the bill’s benefits so people can clearly understand the before and after personal impact. For the undecided, seeing is believing.
