As Republicans face another challenging midterm election, we are taking a look at Congressional vote history and what can be learned from the vote totals for each party. The chart below shows vote totals from 2008 forward, using historical election data from the Clerk of the House.
Here are five takeaways that we notice in these vote totals:
1. In previous editions of Discussion Points, we have highlighted the recent drop in self-identified Democrats as a percentage of the electorate. We have estimated the drop from 2020 to 2024 to be about 10 million, and the drop from 2018 to 2022 about 6.5 million. This decline in the number of voters identifying as Democrats is reflected in the actual votes for Democratic House candidates. From 2020 to 2024, there were over 6.55 million fewer votes for House Democrats. From 2018 to 2022, there were over 9 million fewer. These trends at the House level confirm that the 2024 Democratic loss was not solely about Kamala Harris.
2. In recent elections, Democrats’ best performance in retaining presidential-year vote to midterm vote was 2018, with a difference of about 1.1 million total votes between their presidential and Congressional vote totals. In that election, the Democratic House margin came close to 10 million (9.85 million) This margin was bolstered by their win among independents of 12 in addition to a +4 party ID advantage over Republicans.
3. From 2008 forward, the high point for House Democratic votes was 2020: 77,122,690. The high point for House Republican votes was 2024: 74,390,864. Both elections that saw the high point for each party’s Congressional vote had President Trump at the top of the Republican ticket.
4. In terms of Republican House vote margin from 2008 forward, the high water mark was 2010 with a margin of 5,739,207, which produced a gain of 63 seats. In that election, Republicans won by +19 among independents — boosting the vote for Republican House candidates.
5. From 2008 forward, the second best Republican House vote margin was 2014 with a margin of 4,557,686. The 2014 election led to Republicans winning back the Senate after eight years in the minority, but the 2014 margin was about 1.2 million fewer than the 2010 victory.
