Congress is back from the August work period, and we’ve just come out of the field with a new read on the Big Beautiful Bill. From our latest survey for Winning the Issues (August 30-September 1, 1000 registered voters), we found that many of the same educational challenges that existed with the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act are present with the Big Beautiful Bill.
In terms of whether the tax bill does or does not prevent a tax increase on them and their families, 33% believe it does compared to 48% that say it does not (19% do not know).
Among Republicans, about half (48%) believe it does but with this percentage under 50%. Thirty percent of Republicans do not think it will prevent a tax increase on them personally, with 22% that do not know. This means more than half of Republicans either don’t see the bill preventing a tax increase on them personally or are unsure.
Independents tend not to think it will prevent a tax increase (30-47) with 24% that don’t know.
There is a clear delineation in support for the bill based on whether people think it does or does not prevent a tax increase. Among those who believe the bill does prevent a tax increase on them and their families, they support the bill by more than 3:1 (74-22 favor-oppose). Among those who say the bill does not prevent a tax increase on them, they oppose the bill 24-72.
As the saying goes, everything old is new again. From our 2018 election analysis referencing our post-election survey of midterm voters: (Link to the full report is available here)
More people believed the bill would not lower taxes for “people like them” 36-42 (will-will not). Voters believed the tax cut bill reduced rates for corporations and the wealthy (67-17 believe-do not believe) but not that it would reduce rates for everyone (32-50 believe-not believe). Independents were less likely to believe it reduced rates for everyone (27-51).
Clearly, the electorate was not aware of the basic elements of the bill, and naturally as a result, were unaware of the potential benefits at risk. So, when Republicans said Democrats were going to take away their tax cut, only one-third of the electorate thought they had something to lose….If a majority of voters had understood that the tax cut bill was going to lower taxes for them, this would have decisively helped Republicans. Those people who said it would lower their taxes voted Republican 73-26.
The difference between those who do versus do not see the bill preventing a tax increase on them personally identifies a clear path toward the educational effort that needs to occur.
