It’s shutdown season in Washington, raising the usual questions about “who will get blamed.” Our answer is — no one comes out a winner in a shutdown. Here are seven reasons:
1. From our historical trending for Winning the Issues, the government shutdown of 2013 holds the record for the lowest point in views about the direction of the country (14-77 right direction-wrong track) since we have been tracking this number starting in 1999. Among independents, this number was even worse at 12-81. Our tracking before, during and after the shutdown showed a marked difference in the numbers when the shutdown was happening.
2. The brand images of both parties are negative. (Republicans, 39-56 favorable-unfavorable; Democrats, 41-51 favorable-unfavorable) Among independents, the party brand images are even worse (Republicans, 31-62; Democrats, 30-60).
3. What a shutdown means for Congressional Democrats: Democrats want to show their base they are fighting. But in the last election, there were 10 million fewer self-identified Democrats compared to 2020, so they have significant ground to make up. By supporting a shutdown, Democrats will demonstrate they aren’t an alternative or learned lessons from 2024.
4. What a shutdown means for Congressional Republicans: Republicans need to prove they can govern. Facing a challenging midterm election next year, Republicans have a lot on the line and need to sell their tax bill. With independents on the rise reflecting dissatisfaction with both parties, Republicans aren’t immune from the possibility of losing voters too if they can’t govern effectively.
5. What it means for independents: Independents hate partisan gridlock. A shutdown will cause them to become more negative toward both parties, making them more volatile. They are increasing as a percentage of the electorate. In 2024, independents eclipsed Democrats as a percentage of the electorate, putting Democrats in third place — including in 5 of the 7 competitive presidential states.
6. Costs to the economy. The economy has shown signs of teetering on the edge of a recession. From last week’s CPI report, inflation is still lingering, with our research showing that the electorate sees inflation getting worse (52%) rather than better (23%) or not changing (22%). Additionally, the jobs reports over the last 4 months showed an increase of only 107,000 jobs, a key reason for the Fed cut of interest rates earlier this week.
7. Impact on public discourse: In the last election, 60% of the electorate did not identify with either party’s base. This is up from 57% in 2020, meaning there is a growing number of people in the “everyone else” category moving away from base politics. We’ve just come through a national tragedy involving politically motivated violence. For that 60% of the country not part of either party’s base, a government shutdown would be the most tone deaf move the political system could make at this moment.
