The future of the filibuster is back in the spotlight as the President continues to push for its elimination. In our latest research for Winning the Issues (March 15-17), we looked at the filibuster and voter reaction to arguments for keeping and eliminating it.
Contrast #1 (All Voters): Keeping versus eliminating
In a contrast about keeping versus eliminating, the electorate preferred keeping the filibuster in place by 49-34, similar to the November result of 47-34. Democrats were supportive of keeping it by 56-29, followed by independents at 49-31. Republicans were split with 41% supporting keeping the filibuster and 42% for eliminating it.
Contrast #2 (Republicans only): Should Republican leadership keep versus eliminate?
The next contrast was asked among Republicans only, asking which course of action they wanted Republican leadership to take regarding the filibuster. There were two options. The first was keeping the filibuster in place because Republicans used it when they were in the minority to stop legislation they opposed like President Biden’s Build Back Better plan. The second was eliminating the filibuster to get things passed, like the SAVE America Act voter ID legislation, with a simple majority of 51 votes.
Republicans were evenly split between the two options at 42-42. Conservative Republicans (41-42) and GOP Trump voters (41-42) were also split, like Republicans overall, while those who identified as MAGA thought leadership should eliminate the filibuster by 37-53.
Translating these proportions into potential vote counts, if the Senate Conference reflected the preferences of Republicans overall, conservative Republicans, or Republicans who voted for President Trump, then 22 Republican Senators would be voting to keep the filibuster in place, 22 voting to eliminate it, with 9 undecided. Using the MAGA percentages, then 20 Republican Senators would be voting to keep the filibuster, 28 voting to eliminate it, with 5 undecided. All of these fall well short of votes needed to eliminate the filibuster.
