In the last CPI report released last week, year-over-year inflation ticked up to 3.8% — the highest CPI of President Trump’s term. This is the highest CPI since May 2023, meaning that it is higher than when President Biden left office (3%).
We have been tracking the cumulative effect of inflation during presidential administrations. By January 2026, the increase in wages during President Trump’s term had outpaced prices by 1.9%. But over the last three months, prices have almost caught back up, and are now trailing wages by only 0.2%.
The White House reaction is that these inflation numbers are temporary because of the war in Iran. But given Republicans’ vulnerabilities on the economy, Democrats are already using the inflation reports against Republicans. We saw this recently in a testy exchange between Pete Buttigieg and CNBC Squawk Box host Joe Kernan. The exchange took place following the previous April 10 CPI announcement showed inflation going over 3% as the war started to impact gas prices. (Full interview here)
Kernan pointed out the record inflation under the Biden administration: Over 4 years it was 21 and a half percent….Democrats own the affordability crisis. But Buttigieg pushed back, indicating Democrats do not think the Biden record is still relevant and that the current CPI number from the beginning of Trump’s term is the only inflation metric that matters.
Here were the key statements from Buttigieg’s arguments:
• “When we left, inflation was lower than it is today….[Trump’s] central campaign promise was that he was going to take inflation and drive it down…It was 3% when he got here and now it’s more.”
• President Trump has “actively increased” prices through tariffs and the war in Iran.
Democrats rallied behind Buttigieg’s performance as a model to follow. Republicans should be prepared to see more of this and for Democrats to be more confrontational on the economy and the monthly inflation reports.
There are five more inflation reports before the November election: June 10, July 14, August 12, September 11, October 14. These reports will play key roles in how the electorate evaluates progress on the economy.
