Abdul El-Sayed has achieved another win for the left over the Democratic establishment. Even with his far left beliefs, Republicans shouldn’t assume this race is a slam dunk. In 2024, Republicans thought Mike Rogers — a top quality candidate — would beat Elissa Slotkin in an environment of Biden’s unpopularity. Rogers fell short by about 19,000 votes. This vote gap occurred despite President Trump winning the state by about 80,000 votes. El-Sayed is definitely not a moderate Democrat like Slotkin, but Republicans should heed the lessons of 2024 as Rogers makes his second Senate run.
Party ID
In terms of the party ID trajectory of the state, 2024 exit polls showed there are currently more independents (35%) than Republicans (34%) or Democrats (31%). Like we saw nationally and in 5 out of 7 competitive states, Democrats were a third party in Michigan. Republicans had a 3-point party ID advantage over Democrats but came in behind independents. Over time, the percentage of Democrats has declined from 40% in 2016 to 31% in 2024 with an increase in independents from 29% to 35%.
Given the size of the independent vote, had Rogers matched Trump’s percentage, he would have won the Senate race. Trump lost independents by 4 with Rogers losing them by 7. Trump got 46% of the independent vote, while Rogers got 44%.
Ideology
In terms of ideology, moderates are the largest group (41%) coming in ahead of conservatives (35%) and liberals (25%). Trump lost moderates by 17 with a larger gap for Rogers (-22). Since 2016, there has been some increase in moderates going from 37% to 41%, but with liberals and conservatives remaining generally consistent. There is no indication Michigan has become a more liberal state over the past decade.
Gender
In 2024, women comprised 55% of the Michigan electorate with Slotkin winning women by 9, which was larger than the margin for Kamala Harris (6). Women will be a critical group for Rogers. Given these political trends, independents, moderates and women will be key parts of the needed vote coalition. Will El-Sayed be able to appeal to the center while staying true to his progressive/socialist beliefs?
For more on the rise of the Mamdani-backed candidates, see our recent podcast segment The Clash Of Mamdani Socialists Versus The Democratic Party Establishment.
