In this week’s meeting with NATO chief Mark Rutte, President Trump threatened “very severe” tariffs on Russia if there is no Ukraine deal in 50 days. He also announced the US will sell weapons to NATO to arm Ukraine. In our latest research for Winning the Issues (June 12-14), we explored the foreign policy environment and attitudes about Europe and the transatlantic alliance.
As we have pointed out before, foreign policy is an issue area with conflicting beliefs for US voters. The electorate recognizes the threat of emboldened adversaries like Iran and China, but there is a concern that the US has become overstretched with foreign conflicts. 53% of voters overall believe the US is overstretched (53-30 believe-do not believe), including 68% of Republicans (68-18) and 70% of conservative Republicans (70-16).
US assistance to Ukraine has been one of the most controversial foreign policy issues among Republicans, with criticisms that Europe was not carrying its weight and questions about the future of NATO. But over the past year, we have seen some increase in how the US electorate values alliances. In June 2024, we found that 61% of voters found alliances to be very important compared to 68% presently. Among Republicans, the percentages of very important have increased from 59% to 64%.
The importance of global relationships extends to Europe. The US relationship with Europe was seen as important (91%) rather than not (5%), with 63% calling it very important. Among Republicans, the numbers for very important (55%) are lower compared to independents (66%) and Democrats (69%). But overall, the majority of Republicans (55%) and conservative Republicans (54%) find value in the US-Europe relationship as very important.
Similar trends are seen among 2024 Trump voters, with 53% of this group viewing the US relationship with Europe as very important and 37% calling it somewhat important. Only 8% of Trump voters said the relationship with Europe is not important.
In a speech at the conservative Turning Point conference this weekend, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said “I’m a big fan of alliances, and we are a proud member of NATO.” He brought up prior “NATO freeloading,” and said that era was over. His acknowledgment of the importance of alliances and NATO to a conservative activist audience is significant.
