This week’s big Senate news was Sherrod Brown’s decision to challenge Senator Jon Husted, making another run for the Ohio seat after his 2024 defeat. Sherrod Brown was one of Schumer’s top recruits in 2006, and Schumer is betting on Brown again. Today, we are taking a look at Brown’s past performance (sources: Edison exit polls and election results).
Here are three trends in Ohio that will be relevant to Brown’s chances in 2026:
1.) Increase in Republican party ID: In Brown’s first election, Democrats (40% of the state’s electorate) had a slight advantage over Republicans (37%). From 2006 to 2012, Republicans lost ground in party ID, dropping from 37% in 2006 to 31% in 2012, with independents increasing from 23% to 31% in the same time period. By 2018 under Trump’s presidency, Republicans increased to 38% of the Ohio electorate, back to a level that was on par with what it had been prior to Obama (37% in 2006). In 2018, Democrats dropped to 33% with Republicans having a 5-point party ID advantage, yet Brown won by a healthy margin (7 points). Since that time, the Republican party ID advantage over Democrats has widened to +8 in 2020, +11 in 2022 and +10 in 2024.
2.) Independents are a weak spot: After 2018, Republicans have been more competitive among independents but still struggle to win this group. In 2006, Brown won independents by 30 but lost them by 4 in 2012. However in 2012, the Democratic party ID over Republicans was 7 points and put Brown over the top again. By 2018, independents voted for Brown by 12; even with the Republican party ID advantage (+5), Brown won again. In 2020, President Trump won the state by 8, breaking even with independents. In 2022, JD Vance basically broke even among independents (-1) but this was overcome by the remarkable 11-point Republican party ID advantage. In 2024, President Trump won independents in Ohio by 2, while Moreno lost them by 9. Moreno’s deficit among independents was outweighed by the +10 GOP party ID advantage. Independents are a weak spot for Republicans even in a state like Ohio. Republican Senate candidates must either improve with independents, or sustain the party ID advantage in every election to overcome that vulnerability.
3.) Brown has done well among women voters. Even in his 2024 loss, he won women by 6, while President Trump won women by +1. Prior to 2024, Brown won women by double digits in 2006 (14), 2012 (14), and 2018 (20).
Although Ohio has seen an increasing trend of Republican party ID, Republicans should take Brown’s candidacy seriously, shoring up the vote among independents and women.
