Last week, we covered the release of the latest NAEP results for 12th grade. The results were not good news. Only 22% of 2024 seniors were considered at or above proficient in math, while 35% were considered at or above proficient in reading, erasing two decades’ worth of progress.
These numbers join the results for the fourth and eighth grade 2024 assessments, which were released earlier this year. Those assessments found some improvement in math — although not to pre-pandemic levels — while reading had continued to decline. Some 39% of fourth graders were considered at or above proficient in math, with 31% proficient in reading. Among eighth graders, only 28% were considered at or above proficient in math, with 30% at or above proficient in reading. As David wrote in his Roll Call column shortly after the results were released, these persistent struggles with achievement would have consequences for both our national security and economic power.
But to what extent is the electorate aware of our struggles with student proficiency and achievement? In our latest survey for Winning the Issues (August 30-September 1), we decided to get a sense of where voters thought our fourth and eighth graders were in terms of math and reading proficiency. Did they think more than 50% were proficient, less than 50% were proficient, or about 50% were proficient? The results are presented in the table below.
Overall, nearly one in two (48%) thought that fewer than 50% of fourth and eighth graders were proficient in math and reading, larger than the share saying greater than 50% were proficient (16%) or about 50% were proficient (20%), but still less than a majority. By party, only independents had a majority say that fewer than 50% were proficient in math and reading (53%), compared to Republicans (44%) or Democrats (46%).
On the other hand, parents only had 40% believe that fewer than 50% of fourth and eighth graders are proficient in math and reading, with 51% saying either that greater than 50% were proficient (29%) or about 50% were proficient (22%).
That parents are less likely to say that fewer than 50% of fourth and eighth graders are proficient may reflect the findings of groups like Learning Heroes: that parents tend to rely most on classroom grades to understand how their children are doing academically, often leading to a skewed understanding of where their child really is.
Overall, the results indicate that, while there is some recognition of the challenges we are facing in education, the full scale of these challenges are not yet fully felt among the electorate. In January, 40% of fourth graders did not meet the NAEP Basic threshold (a step below proficiency) in reading. From the results last week, 45% of 12th graders did not meet the Basic threshold in math.
But the fact that the electorate as a whole has less than a majority say that fewer than 50% of fourth and eighth graders are proficient reflects that the scale of the challenge we are facing is not yet fully felt among voters.
