Six weeks out from the election, our new survey for Winning the Issues (September 12-16) shows an alarming environment for Republicans. The economy is overwhelmingly seen as headed in the wrong direction (28-64 right direction-wrong track). Inflation is seen as getting worse (67%) rather than better (13%) or not changing (18%). Republicans are down -7 on handling the economy, -12 on handling inflation, and -12 on handling tariffs.
Messaging
Looking at what voters heard from both parties, the Democratic message is much more focused on the electorate’s top priority than the Republican message that is focused on the SAVE Act.
The top message heard from Republicans was the SAVE America Act with 19% saying they heard this message from Republicans. The SAVE America Act message was slightly ahead of the conflict in Iran (17%) and the “Big Beautiful Bill” (17%). Inflation/gas prices/cost of living/affordability came in fourth at 11%. The top message from Democrats was inflation/gas prices/cost of living/affordability at 30%.
Inflation vs Save Act
We took the top message from each party and tested in a direct contrast.
• By more than 3:1, voters prioritized affordability/cost of living/inflation in how they intend to vote (74%) over passing the SAVE America Act to require ID in order to vote (23%). The same was true among independents (76-20) and women (76-20).
• The margin was much closer among Republicans but of the two issues, they prioritized affordability/cost of living/inflation at 55-41. Among conservative Republicans (71% of all Republicans), there was a similar preference 54-42. Republicans who consider themselves part of the MAGA movement represent about 55% of all Republicans. They prioritized the SAVE America Act (55%) over affordability/cost of living/inflation (42%) but this was not an overwhelming preference.
This is not about whether election security should be a priority — it should always be a priority. The decision is what should the message focus be over the next six weeks. In 2022, a Republican Red Wave fell short because of underperformance with independents. If there is a Blue Wave, it will likely be because of strong Democratic performance among independents. Focusing on the electorate’s number one priority is where Republicans need to concentrate their efforts from now until Election Day.
