In August of last year, Sherrod Brown announced he was a launching a comeback campaign after his defeat in 2024, leading many Republicans to scoff at the idea. In an August 2025 blog post, we wrote: Although Ohio has seen an increasing trend of Republican party ID, Republicans should take Brown’s candidacy seriously, shoring up the vote among independents and women.
Since then, Republican concerns about the Ohio Senate race have grown. Over the past decade, Ohio has become more of a red state, and the large Republican party ID advantage has masked challenges among groups like independents that have been there in election cycles with Republican victories. As the political climate has become more difficult since 2024, the Republican trouble in Ohio is becoming more clear.
As shown in the chart (sources: Edison exit polls and election results), the Republican party ID advantage grew to double digits (+11) by 2022 and was sustained at +10 in 2024. But even with those Republican advantages, Republicans struggled with independents and women.
Independents have been a weak spot for Republicans in several election cycles. After 2018, Republicans were more competitive among independents but still struggled to win this group.
• In 2020, President Trump won the state by 8 but broke even with independents.
• In 2022, JD Vance basically broke even among independents (-1) but this was overcome by an 11-point Republican party ID advantage.
• In 2024, President Trump won independents in Ohio by 2, while Moreno lost them by 9. Similar to Vance’s 2022 race, Moreno’s deficit among independents was made up by the +10 Republican party ID advantage, putting Moreno’s overall vote margin at +4.
Brown has a history of strong performance among women voters. Even in his 2024 loss, Brown won women by 6, while President Trump won women by 1. In his previous elections prior to 2024, Brown won women by double digits in 2006 (14), 2012 (14), and 2018 (20).
Public polls in this race have indicated these two groups are areas of difficulty for Husted. The Fox poll earlier this month (August 6-10) showed an overall Brown lead of 8 with a lead among women of 16 (57-41 Brown-Husted) and a huge advantage among independents of 66-28. A New York Times/Siena survey from June (June 15-28) showed Husted leading by 3 overall but trailing Brown by 11 among women (55-44 Brown-Husted) and by 22 (58-36 Brown-Husted) among independents.
If Republicans can’t sustain the double digit party ID advantages at similar levels this November, they will have to make it up by improved performance among independents and women. This is a common theme we are seeing in other competitive Senate races.
